DEBUNKED: Why voter fraud detection using news voting data is a false narrative

11/13/2020 5:19 PM   

Recently an article was released claiming that there is evidence to be found in the New York Times (NYT) website data that voter fraud was occurring (https://thedonald.win/p/11Q8O2wesk/happening-calling-every-pede-to-/).  This claim is false.  There are many issues with the claim and we will outline them all.  Keep in mind that we at the Daily Defender do think that voter fraud did occur and that overall actual voting outcomes do seem to prove that there was voter fraud occurring in many left leaning districts.  However, from our analysis this particular claim of voter fraud is completely false. 

First off, the claim is based on data from Edison Research.  Edison Research data is not actual data from the polling stations themselves.  It is based on complex mathematical and trend analysis that they use to estimate how polls in counties should be performing on election day.  They have pre-generated models of the number of votes each candidate should have received by a particular time of day.  These models are generated using as much of the data as they can collect prior to election day.  Part of the information they use in generating these models is based on early voting outcomes and in this year especially, any mail in ballots that have been received.  This also calls in to question any screenshots of outcomes as all news stations are showing you modeled data and not actual factual data.  Recordings of CNN showing sudden drops in vote counts are not evidence of voter fraud, but people behind the scenes making adjustments to the totals to correct imperfect computer vote modeling algorithms versus actual exit poll data and nothing more.

On election day itself, these estimates are adjusted/corrected as Edison Research collects exit poll data to more closely reflect reality.  I think this is where the big disconnect from the claims that “vote switching” had been found in the NYT data files.  Vote switching can not be found here at all as these files are not based on actual vote processing, but are merely estimates of what the votes should look like based on historical data and exit polls.  The “vote switching” is most likely just the result of Edison Research making adjustments so that they match differences between their pre-election assumptions and the data they are collecting at the polling stations.

In fact, the details of their process is readily available to anyone at http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/data/election-assets/img/NEP_ExpectedVoteMethodology.pdf

Additionally, we went a step further and actually wrote a program to analyze the results using the NYT data.  Our program, simply looks at each snapshot of vote count updates provided by the NYT data and found that frequent updates were done to the percentages and they were not all one sided.  Running the code below against all data in the Michigan data set gave us the following results:

Voter Fraud Detection Code (written in C#):

These are the results of running this code against the NYT Michigan data set (https://static01.nyt.com/elections-assets/2020/data/api/2020-11-03/race-page/michigan/president.json):

Example of what the raw JSON data for vote snapshots looks like in the data:

    {

                "vote_shares": {

                    "trumpd": 0.584,

                    "bidenj": 0.398

                },

                "votes": 189834,

                "eevp": 3,

                "eevp_source": "edison",

                "timestamp": "2020-11-04T01:25:54Z"

            }, {

                "vote_shares": {

                    "trumpd": 0.583,

                    "bidenj": 0.399

                },

                "votes": 198052,

                "eevp": 3,

                "eevp_source": "edison",

                "timestamp": "2020-11-04T01:26:24Z"

            }, {

                "vote_shares": {

                    "trumpd": 0.568,

                    "bidenj": 0.413

                },

                "votes": 216387,

                "eevp": 4,

                "eevp_source": "edison",

                "timestamp": "2020-11-04T01:28:36Z"

            }, {

                "vote_shares": {

                    "trumpd": 0.575,

                    "bidenj": 0.407

                },

                "votes": 232274,

                "eevp": 4,

                "eevp_source": "edison",

                "timestamp": "2020-11-04T01:28:51Z"

            }, {

                "vote_shares": {

                    "trumpd": 0.575,

                    "bidenj": 0.406

                },

                "votes": 232460,

                "eevp": 4,

                "eevp_source": "edison",

                "timestamp": "2020-11-04T01:32:32Z"

            }, {

                "vote_shares": {

                    "trumpd": 0.579,

                    "bidenj": 0.402

                },

                "votes": 254286,

                "eevp": 4,

                "eevp_source": "edison",

                "timestamp": "2020-11-04T01:32:51Z"

            }

 

Anomaly Detected: 4
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 94,536
New Biden Vote Count: 94,379
Biden Vote Difference:-157
Previous Trump Vote Count: 133,558
New Trump Vote Count: 133,665
Trump Vote Difference:107


Anomaly Detected: 5
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 115,572
New Biden Vote Count: 115,472
Biden Vote Difference:-99
Previous Trump Vote Count: 163,964
New Trump Vote Count: 164,227
Trump Vote Difference:264


Anomaly Detected: 10
Issue with count of Trump votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 230,117
New Biden Vote Count: 233,213
Biden Vote Difference:3,097
Previous Trump Vote Count: 331,689
New Trump Vote Count: 326,269
Trump Vote Difference:-5,420


Anomaly Detected: 16
Issue with count of Trump votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 348,240
New Biden Vote Count: 348,477
Biden Vote Difference:237
Previous Trump Vote Count: 540,091
New Trump Vote Count: 539,548
Trump Vote Difference:-543


Anomaly Detected: 17
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 368,183
New Biden Vote Count: 367,558
Biden Vote Difference:-624
Previous Trump Vote Count: 568,574
New Trump Vote Count: 569,091
Trump Vote Difference:518


Anomaly Detected: 19
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 429,728
New Biden Vote Count: 429,204
Biden Vote Difference:-525
Previous Trump Vote Count: 645,142
New Trump Vote Count: 646,006
Trump Vote Difference:865


Anomaly Detected: 29
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 704,583
New Biden Vote Count: 703,089
Biden Vote Difference:-1,494
Previous Trump Vote Count: 893,339
New Trump Vote Count: 893,508
Trump Vote Difference:169


Anomaly Detected: 30
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 745,972
New Biden Vote Count: 744,844
Biden Vote Difference:-1,128
Previous Trump Vote Count: 945,816
New Trump Vote Count: 946,572
Trump Vote Difference:756


Anomaly Detected: 37
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 902,874
New Biden Vote Count: 902,761
Biden Vote Difference:-113
Previous Trump Vote Count: 1,135,338
New Trump Vote Count: 1,139,892
Trump Vote Difference:4,554


Anomaly Detected: 37
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 908,502
New Biden Vote Count: 907,458
Biden Vote Difference:-1,044
Previous Trump Vote Count: 1,147,140
New Trump Vote Count: 1,150,565
Trump Vote Difference:3,424


Anomaly Detected: 38
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 928,098
New Biden Vote Count: 926,180
Biden Vote Difference:-1,918
Previous Trump Vote Count: 1,167,056
New Trump Vote Count: 1,167,328
Trump Vote Difference:272


Anomaly Detected: 41
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 1,014,933
New Biden Vote Count: 1,013,563
Biden Vote Difference:-1,370
Previous Trump Vote Count: 1,270,995
New Trump Vote Count: 1,272,197
Trump Vote Difference:1,202


Anomaly Detected: 44
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 1,090,829
New Biden Vote Count: 1,089,496
Biden Vote Difference:-1,332
Previous Trump Vote Count: 1,360,416
New Trump Vote Count: 1,361,871
Trump Vote Difference:1,455


Anomaly Detected: 46
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 1,137,387
New Biden Vote Count: 1,137,187
Biden Vote Difference:-200
Previous Trump Vote Count: 1,418,480
New Trump Vote Count: 1,424,092
Trump Vote Difference:5,612


Anomaly Detected: 46
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 1,143,749
New Biden Vote Count: 1,141,434
Biden Vote Difference:-2,316
Previous Trump Vote Count: 1,426,415
New Trump Vote Count: 1,426,792
Trump Vote Difference:377


Anomaly Detected: 48
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 1,183,616
New Biden Vote Count: 1,183,110
Biden Vote Difference:-506
Previous Trump Vote Count: 1,464,017
New Trump Vote Count: 1,466,733
Trump Vote Difference:2,716


Anomaly Detected: 51
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 1,285,510
New Biden Vote Count: 1,285,373
Biden Vote Difference:-137
Previous Trump Vote Count: 1,573,441
New Trump Vote Count: 1,576,841
Trump Vote Difference:3,400


Anomaly Detected: 57
Issue with count of Trump votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 1,451,220
New Biden Vote Count: 1,453,716
Biden Vote Difference:2,496
Previous Trump Vote Count: 1,725,949
New Trump Vote Count: 1,725,681
Trump Vote Difference:-269


Anomaly Detected: 57
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 1,458,424
New Biden Vote Count: 1,457,716
Biden Vote Difference:-708
Previous Trump Vote Count: 1,731,269
New Trump Vote Count: 1,737,546
Trump Vote Difference:6,276


Anomaly Detected: 59
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 1,492,566
New Biden Vote Count: 1,490,324
Biden Vote Difference:-2,242
Previous Trump Vote Count: 1,782,417
New Trump Vote Count: 1,783,722
Trump Vote Difference:1,304


Anomaly Detected: 61
Issue with count of Trump votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 1,560,498
New Biden Vote Count: 1,561,801
Biden Vote Difference:1,303
Previous Trump Vote Count: 1,855,915
New Trump Vote Count: 1,853,986
Trump Vote Difference:-1,929


Anomaly Detected: 62
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 1,569,416
New Biden Vote Count: 1,566,191
Biden Vote Difference:-3,225
Previous Trump Vote Count: 1,866,522
New Trump Vote Count: 1,866,844
Trump Vote Difference:322


Anomaly Detected: 67
Issue with count of Trump votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 1,716,819
New Biden Vote Count: 1,717,905
Biden Vote Difference:1,086
Previous Trump Vote Count: 2,025,162
New Trump Vote Count: 2,022,633
Trump Vote Difference:-2,529


Anomaly Detected: 72
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 1,860,139
New Biden Vote Count: 1,857,697
Biden Vote Difference:-2,442
Previous Trump Vote Count: 2,167,430
New Trump Vote Count: 2,169,363
Trump Vote Difference:1,933


Anomaly Detected: 75
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 1,960,245
New Biden Vote Count: 1,957,471
Biden Vote Difference:-2,774
Previous Trump Vote Count: 2,192,602
New Trump Vote Count: 2,198,455
Trump Vote Difference:5,854


Anomaly Detected: 75
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 1,962,334
New Biden Vote Count: 1,960,312
Biden Vote Difference:-2,022
Previous Trump Vote Count: 2,203,917
New Trump Vote Count: 2,206,411
Trump Vote Difference:2,494


Anomaly Detected: 76
Issue with count of Biden votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 1,993,256
New Biden Vote Count: 1,989,871
Biden Vote Difference:-3,385
Previous Trump Vote Count: 2,229,525
New Trump Vote Count: 2,230,547
Trump Vote Difference:1,021


Anomaly Detected: 76
Issue with count of Trump votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 1,989,871
New Biden Vote Count: 1,995,843
Biden Vote Difference:5,972
Previous Trump Vote Count: 2,230,547
New Trump Vote Count: 2,228,118
Trump Vote Difference:-2,429


Anomaly Detected: 77
Issue with count of Trump votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 2,012,176
New Biden Vote Count: 2,016,049
Biden Vote Difference:3,873
Previous Trump Vote Count: 2,259,895
New Trump Vote Count: 2,259,891
Trump Vote Difference:-5


Anomaly Detected: 92
Issue with count of Trump votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 2,566,349
New Biden Vote Count: 2,567,594
Biden Vote Difference:1,245
Previous Trump Vote Count: 2,535,242
New Trump Vote Count: 2,531,285
Trump Vote Difference:-3,957


Anomaly Detected: 92
Issue with count of Trump votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 2,577,553
New Biden Vote Count: 2,582,684
Biden Vote Difference:5,131
Previous Trump Vote Count: 2,546,310
New Trump Vote Count: 2,546,161
Trump Vote Difference:-149


Anomaly Detected: 94
Issue with count of Trump votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 2,630,507
New Biden Vote Count: 2,624,338
Biden Vote Difference:-6,169
Previous Trump Vote Count: 2,582,776
New Trump Vote Count: 2,576,719
Trump Vote Difference:-6,057


Anomaly Detected: 97
Issue with count of Trump votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 2,683,970
New Biden Vote Count: 2,686,718
Biden Vote Difference:2,748
Previous Trump Vote Count: 2,619,296
New Trump Vote Count: 2,616,583
Trump Vote Difference:-2,713


Anomaly Detected: 99
Issue with count of Trump votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 2,768,674
New Biden Vote Count: 2,791,003
Biden Vote Difference:22,330
Previous Trump Vote Count: 2,636,832
New Trump Vote Count: 2,636,561
Trump Vote Difference:-271


Anomaly Detected: 99
Issue with count of Trump votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 2,794,258
New Biden Vote Count: 2,792,846
Biden Vote Difference:-1,412
Previous Trump Vote Count: 2,650,396
New Trump Vote Count: 2,649,056
Trump Vote Difference:-1,339


Anomaly Detected: 99
Issue with count of Trump votes.
Previous Biden Vote Count: 2,792,847
New Biden Vote Count: 2,789,490
Biden Vote Difference:-3,358
Previous Trump Vote Count: 2,649,057
New Trump Vote Count: 2,645,872
Trump Vote Difference:-3,185

 

As you can see, adjustments happened on both sides as Edison Research corrected counts on Election Day. This exercise was purely academic as it is based on data that does not in fact represent actual vote counts.  We at the Daily Defender are 100% certain that voter fraud did occur as there are hundreds of sworn affidavits by witnesses and much of the mainstream media that has been trying to cover it up since day one as they are complicit in much of it, however, this situation is not evidence of it.

Read the article on thedailydefender.com >